Goal expectancy
1.33Expected goals1.23
From 11 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Progreso 39.1%, draw 26.6%, Wanderers 34.3%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
22Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Wanderers arrives with stronger form weighting (+16 momentum).
38Cold spellWanderers
Progreso · low scoring · cold formWanderers · cold form
Progreso
1W · 4D · 6LRecent →LLDDLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Wanderers
4W · 2D · 5LRecent →LLWLWLDWLWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapWanderers +7
Progreso
7 pts9% wins
1W · 4D · 6L · 11 played
For9
Against18
Wanderers
14 pts36% wins
4W · 2D · 5L · 11 played
For12
Against17
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-14 - Wanderers offensive edge
Wanderers's attack (67%) vs Progreso's defense (53%).
+14
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
Wandererscold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
6Progreso67%
2Draws
1Wanderers11%