PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar Prediction

PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
5 — 1FT
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

Psv EindhovenPsv EindhovenvsAz AlkmaarAz Alkmaar

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Psv Eindhoven

Estimated win chances: Psv Eindhoven 50.1%, draw 22.9%, Az Alkmaar 27%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.82Expected goals1.28

From 3 and 3 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111%
  • 2–110%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 2–07.8%
  • 1–27.1%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

75Hot streakPsv Eindhoven
Weighted momentum

Psv Eindhoven carries the sharper recent run (+19 momentum).

56BuildingAz Alkmaar
Psv Eindhoven · hot form

Psv Eindhoven

2W · 0D · 1L
Recent →WWL
Momentum index

Az Alkmaar

1W · 2D · 0L
Recent →DWD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapPsv Eindhoven +1

Psv Eindhoven

6 pts
67% wins

2W · 0D · 1L · 3 played

For
10
Against
4
Goal diff +6

Az Alkmaar

5 pts
33% wins

1W · 2D · 0L · 3 played

For
5
Against
3
Goal diff +2

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Psv Eindhoven offensive edge

    Psv Eindhoven's attack (67%) vs Az Alkmaar's defense (57%).

    +10
  • Az Alkmaar offensive edge

    Az Alkmaar runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -10

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Psv Eindhoven67
Az Alkmaar33

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Psv Eindhoven43
Az Alkmaar57

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Psv Eindhoven75
Az Alkmaar56

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Psv Eindhoven70
Az Alkmaar30

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Psv Eindhoven30
Az Alkmaar30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Psv Eindhoven55
Az Alkmaar45

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Psv Eindhoven75
Az Alkmaar25
Psv Eindhovenhot form