Goal expectancy
1.44Expected goals1.47
From 17 and 17 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Racing Montevideo 0-1 Defensor Sporting Prediction
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Racing Montevideo 37%, draw 24.7%, Defensor Sporting 38.3%. From 17 and 17 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
46MixedRacing Montevideo
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting arrives with stronger form weighting (+18 momentum).
64BuildingDefensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
6W · 5D · 6LRecent →DWDLWLLWDWDWLLLWD
Momentum index
Defensor Sporting
9W · 5D · 3LRecent →DWWWLWWDLDWDWLDWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +9
Racing Montevideo
23 pts35% wins
6W · 5D · 6L · 17 played
For25
Against24
Defensor Sporting
32 pts53% wins
9W · 5D · 3L · 17 played
For34
Against18
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Racing Montevideo offensive edge
Racing Montevideo faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-17 - Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (53%) vs Racing Montevideo's defense (36%).
+17
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Racing Montevideo33%
0Draws
2Defensor Sporting67%