Goal expectancy
1.34Expected goals0.94
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Racing Montevideo 1-0 Progreso Prediction
Balanced — model leans Racing Montevideo
Estimated win chances: Racing Montevideo 46%, draw 27.8%, Progreso 26.3%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
50MixedRacing Montevideo
Weighted momentum
Racing Montevideo carries the sharper recent run (+42 momentum).
8Cold spellProgreso
Racing Montevideo · low scoringProgreso · low scoring · cold form
Racing Montevideo
1W · 1D · 1LRecent →WLD
Momentum index
Progreso
0W · 1D · 2LRecent →LLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapRacing Montevideo +3
Racing Montevideo
4 pts33% wins
1W · 1D · 1L · 3 played
For3
Against3
Progreso
1 pts0% wins
0W · 1D · 2L · 3 played
For0
Against3
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Racing Montevideo offensive edge
Racing Montevideo's attack (100%) vs Progreso's defense (50%).
+50 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-50
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Racing Montevideolow scoring
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Racing Montevideo80%
0Draws
1Progreso20%