Goal expectancy
2.20Expected goals1.04
From 11 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Roda
Estimated win chances: Roda 63.7%, draw 19.5%, Jong Ajax 16.8%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
62BuildingRoda
Weighted momentum
Roda carries the sharper recent run (+38 momentum).
24Cold spellJong Ajax
Roda · compact defenseJong Ajax · High-risk / fragile
Roda
7W · 2D · 2LRecent →LDWDWWWLWWW
Momentum index
Jong Ajax
1W · 3D · 7LRecent →DLWLDLDLLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapRoda +17
Roda
23 pts64% wins
7W · 2D · 2L · 11 played
For23
Against7
Jong Ajax
6 pts9% wins
1W · 3D · 7L · 11 played
For16
Against28
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Roda offensive edge
Roda's attack (57%) vs Jong Ajax's defense (33%).
+24 - Jong Ajax offensive edge
Jong Ajax runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-24
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Rodacompact defense
Jong AjaxHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Roda50%
1Draws
1Jong Ajax25%