Goal expectancy
1.20Expected goals1.11
From 33 and 33 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Rutsiro 38.1%, draw 28.3%, Bugesera 33.7%. From 33 and 33 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
32Cold spellRutsiro
Weighted momentum
Bugesera arrives with stronger form weighting (+9 momentum).
41MixedBugesera
Rutsiro · low scoring · cold formBugesera · low scoring
Rutsiro
6W · 11D · 16LRecent →WLLDWLDDLLDDWDLLDLLLWWDLLWDDDLLLL
Momentum index
Bugesera
11W · 8D · 14LRecent →LDLLLLWWLWWWDLWDWLWDWLLLWLDLLDDDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBugesera +12
Rutsiro
29 pts18% wins
6W · 11D · 16L · 33 played
For30
Against45
Bugesera
41 pts33% wins
11W · 8D · 14L · 33 played
For32
Against39
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Rutsiro offensive edge
Rutsiro's attack (63%) vs Bugesera's defense (39%).
+24 - Bugesera offensive edge
Bugesera runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-23
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Rutsirolow scoring · cold form
Bugeseralow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Rutsiro38%
3Draws
2Bugesera25%