Goal expectancy
1.89Expected goals1.00
From 24 and 24 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Sámano
Estimated win chances: Sámano 58.2%, draw 22.2%, Barreda 19.6%. From 24 and 24 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
73Hot streakSámano
Weighted momentum
Sámano carries the sharper recent run (+42 momentum).
31Cold spellBarreda
Sámano · compact defense · hot formBarreda · High-risk / fragile
Sámano
15W · 6D · 3LRecent →LWWWWWWWDLWDWWLWWDWDDWDW
Momentum index
Barreda
6W · 6D · 12LRecent →LLDLWLDDWDDLLLWLLWWLWDLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapSámano +27
Sámano
51 pts63% wins
15W · 6D · 3L · 24 played
For39
Against16
Barreda
24 pts25% wins
6W · 6D · 12L · 24 played
For33
Against47
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Sámano offensive edge
Sámano's attack (65%) vs Barreda's defense (29%).
+36 - Barreda offensive edge
Barreda runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-36
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Sámanocompact defense · hot form
BarredaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Sámano50%
0Draws
2Barreda50%