Goal expectancy
1.55Expected goals1.06
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
São Gabriel 2-1 Bagé Prediction
Balanced — model leans São Gabriel
Estimated win chances: São Gabriel 48.6%, draw 25.4%, Bagé 26%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
25Cold spellSão Gabriel
Weighted momentum
Bagé arrives with stronger form weighting (+17 momentum).
42MixedBagé
São Gabriel · low scoring · cold formBagé · low scoring · leaky defense
São Gabriel
0W · 2D · 1LRecent →DDL
Momentum index
Bagé
1W · 0D · 2LRecent →WLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBagé +1
São Gabriel
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 1L · 3 played
For2
Against3
Bagé
3 pts33% wins
1W · 0D · 2L · 3 played
For2
Against7
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- São Gabriel offensive edge
São Gabriel's attack (50%) vs Bagé's defense (30%).
+20 - Bagé offensive edge
Bagé runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-20
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
São Gabriellow scoring · cold form
Bagélow scoring · leaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1São Gabriel50%
1Draws
0Bagé0%