Goal expectancy
1.82Expected goals0.98
From 6 and 6 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Sergipe
Estimated win chances: Sergipe 57.1%, draw 22.8%, Dorense 20.1%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
86Hot streakSergipe
Weighted momentum
Sergipe carries the sharper recent run (+46 momentum).
40MixedDorense
Sergipe · compact defense · hot formDorense · leaky defense
Sergipe
4W · 2D · 0LRecent →WWWWDD
Momentum index
Dorense
2W · 1D · 3LRecent →LWLWDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapSergipe +7
Sergipe
14 pts67% wins
4W · 2D · 0L · 6 played
For9
Against3
Dorense
7 pts33% wins
2W · 1D · 3L · 6 played
For7
Against14
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Sergipe offensive edge
Sergipe's attack (54%) vs Dorense's defense (8%).
+46 - Dorense offensive edge
Dorense runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-46
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Sergipecompact defense · hot form
Dorenseleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Sergipe50%
1Draws
2Dorense33%