Sofapaka 3-2 Mathare United Prediction

SofapakaSofapaka
3 — 2FT
Mathare UnitedMathare United
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

SofapakaSofapakavsMathare UnitedMathare United

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Sofapaka

Estimated win chances: Sofapaka 42.7%, draw 26.4%, Mathare United 30.9%. From 21 and 21 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.40Expected goals1.15

From 21 and 21 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–19%
  • 0–08%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

63BuildingSofapaka
Weighted momentum

Sofapaka carries the sharper recent run (+16 momentum).

47MixedMathare United

Sofapaka

11W · 4D · 6L
Recent →WWLWWDWWLDDLLWWDWWLWL
Momentum index

Mathare United

8W · 10D · 3L
Recent →DDDDWDDDDLLWWWWLDWDWW
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapSofapaka +3

Sofapaka

37 pts
52% wins

11W · 4D · 6L · 21 played

For
30
Against
24
Goal diff +6

Mathare United

34 pts
38% wins

8W · 10D · 3L · 21 played

For
30
Against
23
Goal diff +7

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Sofapaka offensive edge

    Sofapaka's attack (50%) vs Mathare United's defense (25%).

    +25
  • Mathare United offensive edge

    Mathare United runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -25

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Sofapaka50
Mathare United50

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Sofapaka75
Mathare United25

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Sofapaka63
Mathare United47

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Sofapaka100
Mathare United0

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Sofapaka30
Mathare United30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Sofapaka63
Mathare United37

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Sofapaka38
Mathare United62