Goal expectancy
1.72Expected goals1.46
From 13 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
ST Johnstone 1-0 Kilmarnock Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans St Johnstone
Estimated win chances: St Johnstone 43.9%, draw 23.3%, Kilmarnock 32.8%. From 13 and 12 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
25Cold spellSt Johnstone
Weighted momentum
Kilmarnock arrives with stronger form weighting (+12 momentum).
37Cold spellKilmarnock
St Johnstone · High-risk / fragileKilmarnock · High-risk / fragile
St Johnstone
3W · 1D · 9LRecent →LLLWWLLDLLLWL
Momentum index
Kilmarnock
3W · 3D · 6LRecent →LLWLWWDDDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
St Johnstone
10 pts23% wins
3W · 1D · 9L · 13 played
For16
Against27
Kilmarnock
12 pts25% wins
3W · 3D · 6L · 12 played
For15
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- St Johnstone offensive edge
St Johnstone's attack (57%) vs Kilmarnock's defense (50%).
+7 - Kilmarnock offensive edge
Kilmarnock runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-7
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
St JohnstoneHigh-risk / fragile
KilmarnockHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3St Johnstone43%
1Draws
3Kilmarnock43%