Goal expectancy
1.48Expected goals1.30
From 12 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Tapachula
Estimated win chances: Tapachula 41.5%, draw 25.3%, Celaya 33.3%. From 12 and 11 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
30Cold spellTapachula
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
30Cold spellCelaya
Tapachula · High-risk / fragileCelaya · low scoring · cold form
Tapachula
2W · 3D · 7LRecent →LWWLLLDLLDDL
Momentum index
Celaya
1W · 5D · 5LRecent →WDLDLDLDLLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Tapachula
9 pts17% wins
2W · 3D · 7L · 12 played
For14
Against25
Celaya
8 pts9% wins
1W · 5D · 5L · 11 played
For9
Against17
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Tapachula offensive edge
Tapachula faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-1 - Celaya offensive edge
Celaya's attack (42%) vs Tapachula's defense (41%).
+1
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
TapachulaHigh-risk / fragile
Celayalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Tapachula75%
0Draws
1Celaya25%