Goal expectancy
1.59Expected goals1.25
From 11 and 10 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Tapatío 1-2 Cimarrones Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Tapatío
Estimated win chances: Tapatío 45.3%, draw 24.7%, Cimarrones 30%. From 11 and 10 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
44MixedTapatío
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
51MixedCimarrones
Cimarrones · leaky defense
Tapatío
2W · 8D · 1LRecent →DDDWLWDDDDD
Momentum index
Cimarrones
4W · 3D · 3LRecent →WLDLWWDWLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Tapatío
14 pts18% wins
2W · 8D · 1L · 11 played
For13
Against11
Cimarrones
15 pts40% wins
4W · 3D · 3L · 10 played
For18
Against18
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Tapatío offensive edge
Tapatío's attack (31%) vs Cimarrones's defense (29%).
+2 - Cimarrones offensive edge
Cimarrones runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-2
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Cimarronesleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Tapatío29%
4Draws
1Cimarrones14%