Goal expectancy
1.76Expected goals0.59
From 23 and 23 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Toledo
Estimated win chances: Toledo 65.8%, draw 22.3%, Cazalegas 11.9%. From 23 and 23 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
78Hot streakToledo
Weighted momentum
Toledo carries the sharper recent run (+58 momentum).
20Cold spellCazalegas
Toledo · compact defense · hot formCazalegas · low scoring · cold form
Toledo
15W · 6D · 2LRecent →WWWWLLWWWWWDWDWWWWDWDDD
Momentum index
Cazalegas
2W · 6D · 15LRecent →LDLDWDLDLLLDLLLLLWDLLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapToledo +39
Toledo
51 pts65% wins
15W · 6D · 2L · 23 played
For38
Against12
Cazalegas
12 pts9% wins
2W · 6D · 15L · 23 played
For12
Against37
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Toledo offensive edge
Toledo's attack (78%) vs Cazalegas's defense (30%).
+48 - Cazalegas offensive edge
Cazalegas runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-48
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Toledocompact defense · hot form
Cazalegaslow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Toledo40%
0Draws
3Cazalegas60%