Goal expectancy
1.62Expected goals1.05
From 18 and 19 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Trans Narva 3-1 Viljandi Prediction
Balanced — model leans Trans Narva
Estimated win chances: Trans Narva 50.6%, draw 24.8%, Viljandi 24.6%. From 18 and 19 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
47MixedTrans Narva
Weighted momentum
Trans Narva carries the sharper recent run (+15 momentum).
32Cold spellViljandi
Viljandi · High-risk / fragile
Trans Narva
6W · 4D · 8LRecent →DLWWLDWWDLWWLLLLDL
Momentum index
Viljandi
4W · 4D · 11LRecent →DWWDLLDLLLDLLWLLWLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Trans Narva
22 pts33% wins
6W · 4D · 8L · 18 played
For20
Against23
Viljandi
16 pts21% wins
4W · 4D · 11L · 19 played
For18
Against36
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Trans Narva offensive edge
Trans Narva faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-1 - Viljandi offensive edge
Viljandi runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
0
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ViljandiHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Trans Narva33%
2Draws
2Viljandi33%