Goal expectancy
1.35Expected goals1.41
From 20 and 20 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Tukums 1-2 BFC Daugavpils Prediction
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Tukums 35.9%, draw 25.5%, Bfc Daugavpils 38.6%. From 20 and 20 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
30Cold spellTukums
Weighted momentum
Bfc Daugavpils arrives with stronger form weighting (+15 momentum).
45MixedBfc Daugavpils
Tukums · High-risk / fragile
Tukums
6W · 4D · 10LRecent →DWLLLLDLLWDLLWLDWLWW
Momentum index
Bfc Daugavpils
9W · 4D · 7LRecent →LWDLLLLWWWWDWLLDWWWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBfc Daugavpils +9
Tukums
22 pts30% wins
6W · 4D · 10L · 20 played
For20
Against38
Bfc Daugavpils
31 pts45% wins
9W · 4D · 7L · 20 played
For25
Against27
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Tukums offensive edge
Tukums faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-8 - Bfc Daugavpils offensive edge
Bfc Daugavpils's attack (56%) vs Tukums's defense (48%).
+8
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
TukumsHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
1Tukums100%
0Draws
0Bfc Daugavpils0%