Goal expectancy
1.34Expected goals2.05
From 31 and 31 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Riga
Estimated win chances: Tukums 24.8%, draw 21.3%, Riga 53.9%. From 31 and 31 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
25Cold spellTukums
Weighted momentum
Riga arrives with stronger form weighting (+52 momentum).
77Hot streakRiga
Tukums · High-risk / fragileRiga · hot form
Tukums
5W · 9D · 17LRecent →DLWLLLWLLLLLLWDLLLDDWWLDDLDDLDL
Momentum index
Riga
22W · 7D · 2LRecent →WWDDLDWWWWWDWWWWWWDWWWDWWWDWWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapRiga +49
Tukums
24 pts16% wins
5W · 9D · 17L · 31 played
For44
Against61
Riga
73 pts71% wins
22W · 7D · 2L · 31 played
For86
Against30
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Tukums offensive edge
Tukums faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-27 - Riga offensive edge
Riga's attack (64%) vs Tukums's defense (38%).
+26
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
TukumsHigh-risk / fragile
Rigahot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Tukums40%
2Draws
4Riga40%