Goal expectancy
1.76Expected goals1.61
From 27 and 27 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
USBM 4-2 Jeunesse Evolution Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Usbm
Estimated win chances: Usbm 41.8%, draw 22.7%, Jeunesse Evolution 35.5%. From 27 and 27 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
45MixedUsbm
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
49MixedJeunesse Evolution
Usbm · leaky defense
Usbm
8W · 7D · 12LRecent →WWLWLLLDWWWDLDLLWLWDLLLDLDD
Momentum index
Jeunesse Evolution
11W · 9D · 7LRecent →WDDDDLWDLLWWLWDWDWLWLWLWDWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapJeunesse Evolution +11
Usbm
31 pts30% wins
8W · 7D · 12L · 27 played
For56
Against54
Jeunesse Evolution
42 pts41% wins
11W · 9D · 7L · 27 played
For46
Against33
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Usbm offensive edge
Usbm's attack (75%) vs Jeunesse Evolution's defense (64%).
+11 - Jeunesse Evolution offensive edge
Jeunesse Evolution runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-11
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Usbmleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Usbm50%
2Draws
1Jeunesse Evolution17%