Goal expectancy
1.19Expected goals0.78
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Usfa
Estimated win chances: Usfa 45.6%, draw 30.2%, Douanes 24.2%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
56BuildingUsfa
Weighted momentum
Usfa carries the sharper recent run (+13 momentum).
43MixedDouanes
Usfa · Structured / conservativeDouanes · low scoring
Usfa
7W · 5D · 4LRecent →DWDLWWDWWLDLWDWL
Momentum index
Douanes
5W · 7D · 4LRecent →LLWLDWDWWDDDLDDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapUsfa +4
Usfa
26 pts44% wins
7W · 5D · 4L · 16 played
For14
Against8
Douanes
22 pts31% wins
5W · 7D · 4L · 16 played
For15
Against17
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Usfa offensive edge
Usfa's attack (50%) vs Douanes's defense (20%).
+30 - Douanes offensive edge
Douanes runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-30
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
UsfaStructured / conservative
Douaneslow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Usfa56%
2Draws
2Douanes22%