Goal expectancy
1.25Expected goals0.95
From 31 and 31 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Vila Nova
Estimated win chances: Vila Nova 43.2%, draw 28.7%, Cuiaba 28.1%. From 31 and 31 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
63BuildingVila Nova
Weighted momentum
Vila Nova carries the sharper recent run (+9 momentum).
54BuildingCuiaba
Cuiaba · Structured / conservative
Vila Nova
17W · 6D · 8LRecent →WWWDWLWDWWLLWLLWLWLWWWWLDDWWWDD
Momentum index
Cuiaba
11W · 13D · 7LRecent →WLWDWLWDWWDDLLDWDLWWWLDDDDWDLDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapVila Nova +11
Vila Nova
57 pts55% wins
17W · 6D · 8L · 31 played
For44
Against31
Cuiaba
46 pts35% wins
11W · 13D · 7L · 31 played
For32
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Vila Nova offensive edge
Vila Nova's attack (44%) vs Cuiaba's defense (20%).
+24 - Cuiaba offensive edge
Cuiaba runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-24
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
CuiabaStructured / conservative
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
6Vila Nova60%
2Draws
2Cuiaba20%