Goal expectancy
1.25Expected goals1.16
From 13 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Viljandi 38.4%, draw 27.6%, Paide 34%. From 13 and 14 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
18Cold spellViljandi
Weighted momentum
Paide arrives with stronger form weighting (+9 momentum).
27Cold spellPaide
Viljandi · High-risk / fragilePaide · low scoring · cold form
Viljandi
2W · 2D · 9LRecent →DLLLDLLWLLWLL
Momentum index
Paide
3W · 3D · 8LRecent →LDDLWLLWLDLLLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Viljandi
8 pts15% wins
2W · 2D · 9L · 13 played
For6
Against24
Paide
12 pts21% wins
3W · 3D · 8L · 14 played
For10
Against22
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Viljandi offensive edge
Viljandi faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-22 - Paide offensive edge
Paide's attack (75%) vs Viljandi's defense (53%).
+22
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ViljandiHigh-risk / fragile
Paidelow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Viljandi60%
1Draws
1Paide20%