Goal expectancy
1.43Expected goals1.19
From 9 and 7 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Viljandi 0-1 Trans Narva Prediction
Balanced — model leans Viljandi
Estimated win chances: Viljandi 42.6%, draw 26%, Trans Narva 31.4%. From 9 and 7 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
26Cold spellViljandi
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
25Cold spellTrans Narva
Viljandi · High-risk / fragileTrans Narva · High-risk / fragile
Viljandi
2W · 1D · 6LRecent →DLLWLLWLL
Momentum index
Trans Narva
1W · 1D · 5LRecent →WLLLLDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Viljandi
7 pts22% wins
2W · 1D · 6L · 9 played
For5
Against17
Trans Narva
4 pts14% wins
1W · 1D · 5L · 7 played
For4
Against14
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Viljandi offensive edge
Viljandi faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-4 - Trans Narva offensive edge
Trans Narva's attack (57%) vs Viljandi's defense (53%).
+4
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ViljandiHigh-risk / fragile
Trans NarvaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Viljandi50%
1Draws
1Trans Narva25%