Goal expectancy
1.35Expected goals0.89
From 22 and 22 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
VTM 3-0 Security Systems Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Vtm
Estimated win chances: Vtm 47.5%, draw 27.8%, Security Systems 24.7%. From 22 and 22 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
32Cold spellVtm
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
27Cold spellSecurity Systems
Vtm · cold formSecurity Systems · low scoring · cold form
Vtm
5W · 8D · 9LRecent →WLDDLLLLDDDLDWDWDWLLWL
Momentum index
Security Systems
4W · 7D · 11LRecent →LDDDLDWLLWLLDLLWDLLLDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapVtm +4
Vtm
23 pts23% wins
5W · 8D · 9L · 22 played
For25
Against25
Security Systems
19 pts18% wins
4W · 7D · 11L · 22 played
For15
Against28
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Vtm offensive edge
Vtm's attack (75%) vs Security Systems's defense (55%).
+20 - Security Systems offensive edge
Security Systems runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-20
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Vtmcold form
Security Systemslow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Vtm0%
1Draws
2Security Systems67%