Goal expectancy
1.38Expected goals1.59
From 10 and 10 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Wanderers 33.2%, draw 24.3%, Progreso 42.5%. From 10 and 10 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
33Cold spellWanderers
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+44 momentum).
77Hot streakProgreso
Wanderers · low scoring · cold formProgreso · hot form
Wanderers
2W · 3D · 5LRecent →DWLLLWDLLD
Momentum index
Progreso
7W · 3D · 0LRecent →WDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +15
Wanderers
9 pts20% wins
2W · 3D · 5L · 10 played
For10
Against16
Progreso
24 pts70% wins
7W · 3D · 0L · 10 played
For23
Against14
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Wanderers offensive edge
Wanderers faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-25 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (56%) vs Wanderers's defense (31%).
+25
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Wandererslow scoring · cold form
Progresohot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Wanderers75%
0Draws
1Progreso25%