Goal expectancy
1.53Expected goals1.01
From 19 and 19 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Wanderers
Estimated win chances: Wanderers 49.3%, draw 25.7%, Progreso 25%. From 19 and 19 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
46MixedWanderers
Weighted momentum
Wanderers carries the sharper recent run (+23 momentum).
23Cold spellProgreso
Progreso · low scoring · cold form
Wanderers
7W · 5D · 7LRecent →DWDDWLWLLLWLWLDWLWD
Momentum index
Progreso
3W · 4D · 12LRecent →LWLLLLLWLLDDLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapWanderers +13
Wanderers
26 pts37% wins
7W · 5D · 7L · 19 played
For22
Against24
Progreso
13 pts16% wins
3W · 4D · 12L · 19 played
For16
Against30
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Wanderers offensive edge
Wanderers's attack (58%) vs Progreso's defense (25%).
+33 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-33
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
7Wanderers70%
2Draws
1Progreso10%