Goal expectancy
1.44Expected goals1.07
From 34 and 33 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Wanderers
Estimated win chances: Wanderers 45.6%, draw 26.4%, Progreso 28.1%. From 34 and 33 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
49MixedWanderers
Weighted momentum
Wanderers carries the sharper recent run (+10 momentum).
39Cold spellProgreso
Progreso · low scoring · cold form
Wanderers
14W · 8D · 12LRecent →LLWWDDLWLDWLWWWDWDDWLWLLLWLWLDWLWD
Momentum index
Progreso
9W · 5D · 19LRecent →WDLWWLWWLLLLWLLWLLLLLWLLDDLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Wanderers
50 pts41% wins
14W · 8D · 12L · 34 played
For42
Against47
Progreso
32 pts27% wins
9W · 5D · 19L · 33 played
For30
Against47
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Wanderers offensive edge
Wanderers faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-17 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (60%) vs Wanderers's defense (43%).
+17
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
7Wanderers70%
2Draws
1Progreso10%