Goal expectancy
1.49Expected goals1.19
From 14 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin Prediction
Balanced — model leans Werder Bremen
Estimated win chances: Werder Bremen 44.1%, draw 25.6%, Union Berlin 30.3%. From 14 and 14 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
56BuildingWerder Bremen
Weighted momentum
Werder Bremen carries the sharper recent run (+24 momentum).
32Cold spellUnion Berlin
Werder Bremen · leaky defenseUnion Berlin · low scoring · cold form
Werder Bremen
6W · 4D · 4LRecent →WWDLWLDWLWLWDD
Momentum index
Union Berlin
4W · 5D · 5LRecent →DLLLDLDWWLWDWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapWerder Bremen +5
Werder Bremen
22 pts43% wins
6W · 4D · 4L · 14 played
For22
Against24
Union Berlin
17 pts29% wins
4W · 5D · 5L · 14 played
For13
Against15
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Werder Bremen offensive edge
Werder Bremen's attack (64%) vs Union Berlin's defense (36%).
+28 - Union Berlin offensive edge
Union Berlin runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-28
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Werder Bremenleaky defense
Union Berlinlow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Werder Bremen67%
0Draws
2Union Berlin33%