Goal expectancy
1.53Expected goals1.11
From 41 and 40 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Wolves
Estimated win chances: Wolves 47%, draw 25.5%, Derby 27.6%. From 41 and 40 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
71Hot streakWolves
Weighted momentum
Wolves carries the sharper recent run (+16 momentum).
55BuildingDerby
Wolves · compact defense · hot form
Wolves
27W · 8D · 6LRecent →WDWWWLWLDDWWWLDWWDWWDWWWWWWLWWWLWWDWDLWWW
Momentum index
Derby
18W · 14D · 8LRecent →WWLDDLDDLDWDDWDWDWWWWLWWDLWWWWDDDLWLWWLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Wolves
89 pts66% wins
27W · 8D · 6L · 41 played
For74
Against36
Derby
68 pts45% wins
18W · 14D · 8L · 40 played
For60
Against38
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Wolves offensive edge
Wolves's attack (65%) vs Derby's defense (44%).
+21 - Derby offensive edge
Derby runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-21
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Wolvescompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Wolves56%
2Draws
2Derby22%