Goal expectancy
1.92Expected goals1.12
From 18 and 18 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Yagüe
Estimated win chances: Yagüe 56%, draw 22.1%, Villegas 21.9%. From 18 and 18 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
45MixedYagüe
Weighted momentum
Yagüe carries the sharper recent run (+8 momentum).
37Cold spellVillegas
Villegas · High-risk / fragile
Yagüe
7W · 6D · 5LRecent →WLDLDDWDDDLWWLWWLW
Momentum index
Villegas
6W · 3D · 9LRecent →LDLLWWLWDWLLLLWDWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapYagüe +6
Yagüe
27 pts39% wins
7W · 6D · 5L · 18 played
For29
Against24
Villegas
21 pts33% wins
6W · 3D · 9L · 18 played
For19
Against37
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Yagüe offensive edge
Yagüe faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-1 - Villegas offensive edge
Villegas's attack (60%) vs Yagüe's defense (59%).
+1
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
VillegasHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Yagüe100%
0Draws
0Villegas0%