Goal expectancy
1.99Expected goals1.11
From 25 and 25 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Zug
Estimated win chances: Zug 57.8%, draw 21.5%, Ascona 20.7%. From 25 and 25 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
56BuildingZug
Weighted momentum
Zug carries the sharper recent run (+19 momentum).
37Cold spellAscona
Ascona · low scoring · cold form
Zug
12W · 8D · 5LRecent →DLWWDWLWWLLWWDWLDDDWDWWDW
Momentum index
Ascona
6W · 5D · 14LRecent →DWLLDWLWLDLWDLDLWWLLLLLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapZug +21
Zug
44 pts48% wins
12W · 8D · 5L · 25 played
For55
Against35
Ascona
23 pts24% wins
6W · 5D · 14L · 25 played
For25
Against41
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Zug offensive edge
Zug's attack (60%) vs Ascona's defense (47%).
+13 - Ascona offensive edge
Ascona runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-13
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Asconalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Zug33%
2Draws
0Ascona0%