Goal expectancy
1.20Expected goals1.03
From 31 and 31 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Fluminense 2-2 Gremio Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Fluminense
Estimated win chances: Fluminense 39.9%, draw 28.8%, Gremio 31.4%. From 31 and 31 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
46MixedFluminense
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
45MixedGremio
Fluminense · low scoring
Fluminense
10W · 6D · 15LRecent →LWWWLLLWWDLWWWWDLDLLLLLLDLDLWLD
Momentum index
Gremio
11W · 5D · 15LRecent →WLLWDLWDLWLWWWDWLLLDWDLLLLLLWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapGremio +2
Fluminense
36 pts32% wins
10W · 6D · 15L · 31 played
For26
Against32
Gremio
38 pts35% wins
11W · 5D · 15L · 31 played
For36
Against39
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Fluminense offensive edge
Fluminense's attack (42%) vs Gremio's defense (38%).
+4 - Gremio offensive edge
Gremio runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-5
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Fluminenselow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Fluminense80%
0Draws
1Gremio20%