Goal expectancy
1.08Expected goals1.41
From 23 and 23 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Turku Ps
Estimated win chances: Mariehamn 28.8%, draw 26.6%, Turku Ps 44.5%. From 23 and 23 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
26Cold spellMariehamn
Weighted momentum
Turku Ps arrives with stronger form weighting (+18 momentum).
44MixedTurku Ps
Mariehamn · High-risk / fragile
Mariehamn
3W · 5D · 15LRecent →LWWWLLDLLLLLLLLLDDLLDLD
Momentum index
Turku Ps
8W · 8D · 7LRecent →DDDWDWLLWLWDLLWLLWDDWWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapTurku Ps +18
Mariehamn
14 pts13% wins
3W · 5D · 15L · 23 played
For18
Against45
Turku Ps
32 pts35% wins
8W · 8D · 7L · 23 played
For28
Against23
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Mariehamn offensive edge
Mariehamn faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-3 - Turku Ps offensive edge
Turku Ps's attack (36%) vs Mariehamn's defense (33%).
+3
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
MariehamnHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Mariehamn30%
6Draws
1Turku Ps10%