Goal expectancy
1.49Expected goals0.89
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Mexico
Estimated win chances: Mexico 51.2%, draw 26.2%, Ecuador 22.5%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
100Hot streakMexico
Weighted momentum
Mexico carries the sharper recent run (+47 momentum).
53BuildingEcuador
Mexico · compact defense · hot formEcuador · Structured / conservative
Mexico
3W · 0D · 0LRecent →WWW
Momentum index
Ecuador
1W · 1D · 1LRecent →WDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapMexico +5
Mexico
9 pts100% wins
3W · 0D · 0L · 3 played
For6
Against0
Ecuador
4 pts33% wins
1W · 1D · 1L · 3 played
For2
Against2
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Mexico offensive edge
Mexico's attack (75%) vs Ecuador's defense (0%).
+75 - Ecuador offensive edge
Ecuador runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-75
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Mexicocompact defense · hot form
EcuadorStructured / conservative
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Mexico17%
3Draws
2Ecuador33%