Goal expectancy
1.36Expected goals0.98
From 17 and 17 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Mortágua
Estimated win chances: Mortágua 45.5%, draw 27.4%, Peniche 27%. From 17 and 17 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
62BuildingMortágua
Weighted momentum
Mortágua carries the sharper recent run (+24 momentum).
38Cold spellPeniche
Mortágua · Structured / conservativePeniche · cold form
Mortágua
8W · 5D · 4LRecent →WWWLWLWDDWDLLWWDD
Momentum index
Peniche
5W · 6D · 6LRecent →DDDDDWLLDWLLWLWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapMortágua +8
Mortágua
29 pts47% wins
8W · 5D · 4L · 17 played
For17
Against16
Peniche
21 pts29% wins
5W · 6D · 6L · 17 played
For18
Against24
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Mortágua offensive edge
Mortágua's attack (60%) vs Peniche's defense (50%).
+10 - Peniche offensive edge
Peniche runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-10
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
MortáguaStructured / conservative
Penichecold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Mortágua80%
1Draws
0Peniche0%