Goal expectancy
1.44Expected goals1.15
From 19 and 18 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 1-2 Uruguay Montevideo Prediction
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 43.7%, draw 26.1%, Uruguay Montevideo 30.2%. From 19 and 18 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
62BuildingProgreso
Weighted momentum
Uruguay Montevideo arrives with stronger form weighting (+17 momentum).
79Hot streakUruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo · compact defense · hot form
Progreso
12W · 4D · 3LRecent →LLDWWLWWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Uruguay Montevideo
11W · 2D · 5LRecent →WWWWWWDWWWDLWLWLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Progreso
40 pts63% wins
12W · 4D · 3L · 19 played
For35
Against19
Uruguay Montevideo
35 pts61% wins
11W · 2D · 5L · 18 played
For27
Against14
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-67 - Uruguay Montevideo offensive edge
Uruguay Montevideo's attack (67%) vs Progreso's defense (0%).
+67
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Uruguay Montevideocompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Progreso33%
0Draws
2Uruguay Montevideo67%